What the Facebook IPO can teach us about inbound marketing and word of mouth.

Nothing.

No really, nothing at all.  What it will teach us is that the same information gets regurgitated over and over and over again, and that linkbaiting, the practice of creating misleading headlines in order to generate clicks, is alive and well. Flourishing, even.

I did it with this post, actually. Clever, right?

This week, with the dawn of the Facebook IPO (The Biggest IPO in Tech History) we’re seeing two of my least favorite phenomenon in action:

1) The Echo Chamber Effect.
The same information repeated by the same outlets, over and over and over again. This happens a lot when a celebrity dies, but it’s very common in the tech world too. This afternoon was particularly bad: the entire internet, including ‘reputable’ news outlets, posted ‘Breaking News’ that the Facebook shares were set at $38, and that the IPO was therefore confirmed as the biggest tech IPO of all time.  Was that ever really in question? Did the price merit the breaking news tag? Is that really ‘breaking news’, or are you just tediously milking it for effect?

I’m all for everyone having an opinion, I’d just like for it not to be the same opinon, and I’d like it to add something to the conversation. CNBC reporting what Mashable saw on CNN makes me die a little inside. Please stop.

2) The Ubiquitous Expert Effect.
Everyone and their mother knows how this is going to go. Experts have come out the woodwork with every opinion you could possible want on this IPO: Facebook is going to be the biggest company in the world, or it’s going to crash and burn.  The valuation is a steal, or they’re ridiculously over valued. Zuckerberg is going to ring the bell at the stock exchange or he (gasp!) is going to do it remotely from the Facebook campus in Menlo Park. Stop the presses, seriously.

The truth is, anyone who states with absolute conviction that they know how this is going to go is full of it.  Balance, perspective and reasoned thought are not assets that the news media (or the news consuming public) values.  Reasoned, smart debate has been replaced by the ubiquitous expert effect. He who shouts loudest, wins. This IPO is the worst example of that that I have ever seen. It’s pigs at the trough.

The bottom line is that Facebook is an amazing company. It’s a genuine phenomenon that has built online community on an absolutely unprecedented scale, the likes of which we have simply never seen before.  It is mind bogglingly big actually: valued at around a hundred billion dollars. That’s on a billion dollars or so of revenue. That may or may not be a good bet, but like all IPOs it is exactly that: a bet.

It’s OK to say that it could go one of two ways. It’s OK to tell both sides of the story. Heck, it’s OK to say that we just don’t know how it’s going to go. One thing is for sure though: revenue is going to have to increase one way or another. That’s not exactly a ground breaking insight, but it’s definitely gotten lost in the pre-IPO frenzy.

If you’re telling me with absolute certainty that you know how this is going to play out, then I can say with absolute certainty that I would not want to sit next to you at a dinner party. I’m sure your mum thinks you’re lovely, but Iwould like for you to stop talking for a bit. Thanks so much.

Fab.com gets a little creative with ‘retail price’ of one of its products :)

By now everyone is familiar with the Gilt.com and Groupon.com style deal sites.  It’s a model that will continue to evolve, and as the sites continue to get more specialized, one that will continue to do well. That has been Groupon’s achilles heel for a couple of years now: they’re trying to be all things to all people, and long term that just won’t work.  That’s a post for another day though.

Today I wanted to point out something I noticed on one of my favorite of those specialized sites: fab.com: They list the retail price of this sweet beach chair designed by Larry Laske as $28.50:

But if you take a look at the designer’s site, you’ll see that he’s actually selling them direct, for $19.50:

He charges more for shipping. but nevertheless, a $9 difference for an item of that price is pretty significant. Sure it’s only a few bucks, but the product is clearly available for less than the retail price that Gilt is claiming.

And if you scroll down a little on the designer’s site, you’ll see can actually bulk buy a package of 10 products for just $170, including shipping:

So that’s $17 per unit, including shipping. Cheaper than buying through Fab.

Bottom line here: these deal sites are great for product discovery, but you shouldn’t automatically assume that you’re getting a bargain from them. In this instance, Fab.com are actually charging more for the product than you could get it for direct from the designer.

I guess the real question is what they mean by ‘retail price’. My assumption as a consumer on a site like this would be that this price is what I would pay for the product elsewhere. Clearly that’s not the case in this instance.

Galaxy Nexus: First Impressions

I’ve had my Galaxy Nexus (Google’s new phone, and the Android operating system’s flagship product) for a little over 24 hours now. Despite the huge anticipation, the phone was one of the worst product launches I’ve ever seen (more of a whimper than a bang), and was plagued with delays and misinformation ahead of launch. A case of too many cooks in the kitchen perhaps, with Google, Verizon and Samsung all involved.

There were also some issues with Google Wallet (google’s payment system that they were to showcase on this phone), which Verizon ended up blocking due to ‘security concerns’. Interestingly, Verizon have their own similar product coming out next year, in partnership with AT&T and T-Mobile.

Make of that what you will.

Anyhow, here are my first impressions of the phone, after playing with it for 24 hours.

The Good

• Verizon’s 4G is quick. And I mean really, really quick. Apps download in a flash and web pages load almost instantaneously. It’s a joy as an internet device, it really is. HUGE plus for me there given how much data I use.
• Ice Cream Sandwich (the new version of Android, only available on this device thus far) is really slick. Still not quite iPhone levels of slickness, but getting there for sure. Definitely a big step up from previous versions.
• Call quality is great: much, much better than my previous phone (HTC Incredible). People sound sharp and clear.
• The screen is absolutely stunning.  Incredibly clear and sharp. Love it.

The Bad

• Battery life is appalling. Really, really bad. I have the standard (non extended) battery in there, and I get about six or seven hours of very light use. Not good. Makes me scared to use features like GPS.
• It is a really big phone. Not heavy, just BIG. The footprint isn’t all that much smaller than my Kindle, and although it still manages to feel sleek and elegant, there’s a part of me that feels that it’s just too big as a phone. Hold an iPad to your face for an approximation of what it’s like to talk into.
• It takes an ages to find signal again when I come up from the subway. I assume it’s Verizon 4G network related rather than the phone, but it’s still really annoying.
• No hardware button for the camera. Why? I hate that bloody software button. May sound like a minor gripe, but I love to take pictures with my camera, and this really annoys me. Pressing the screen is just not the same as pressing a button. Despite the fact that the photos come out nicely (see below), this really bugs me.

Summary: it’s a really slick phone, but I’m definitely disappointed with the battery life and the software camera button. The camera itself takes nice pictures (not iPhone nice, but still decent), and the 4G speed is a joy, but so far I have to say I’m a little underwhelmed.

Early days though: I’ll re-evaluate again in a week’s time.

Volcano surfing, for the random Aussie guy :)

Ten years ago I was on a surf/snowboard trip, taking in some of the best spots for both the world had to offer. I was traveling light, other than my eight foot surf board that went with me wherever I went… including the ski hills.

I arrived in Calgary on my way up to the Banff ski area with this huge surf board bag in tow. I’m dressed inappropriately (having just come from Central America), and am dragging this massive bag that anyone who surfs would recognize as having boards in it.

As I’m walking through the airport, a guy who looks like he could be a surfer looks me up and down somewhat incredulously, then without missing a beat, says in a super thick Aussie accent: “sorry mate,  afraid the surf’s not been too good here lately”, before winking and walking off.

Bear in mind this is December in Canada, the temperature is well below zero, and we’re not on the coast. There is definitely no surf in Calgary (which is inland) in December.

It would have really easy to make fun of me, or to say something mean or to mock me. After all, I was headed to a ski hill with a surf board… but instead, this guy took the time to think of something witty, and to deliver his line in a thoroughly charmingly way. I remember it, and him, as if it was yesterday.

I thought of that guy this week as I drove inland from the Costa Rican coastline, where i was surfing, to take a look at the volcano Arenal, a good way away from the coast. Not a lot of surf there either though, obviously, and when I looked at my rental car with my surf board stuffed into it, I saw an opportunity to pay homage to that guy who made me laugh a few years back.

So, random Australian guy in Calgary airport 10 years ago…. this one’s for you mate:

Yep, that’s me with my surfboard (leash attached), in front of one of the world’s most active volcanos, for no reason at all, really. And yes, I know it’s cloudy, but here’s a shot from the exact same spot 24 hours earlier, when you can actually see the thing:

Monster. It’s an actual working volcano. That black stuff is where the lava has been. Gnarly, huh?

So thanks for the laugh that day random Aussie guy. I’m still appreciating it, even all these years later. Pura vida

The Kindle’s Killer App

When I was asking friends about their Kindles, trying to decide which of the new batch was for me, one comment in particular really jumped out at me: Ian Sohn told me that he loved his basic model, and that he particularly liked that it didn’t multi task. Sort of an odd statement when you think about it, but it didn’t really register with me at that time.

Given the arms race of a tech society we live in, it’s  unusual to hear somebody citing the lack of a feature or features as a positive. Now that I’ve had mine for a couple of weeks, I see exactly what he means, and he’s 100% right.

I read more because all my Kindle does is let me read. I don’t have the distractions of apps or videos or a million other things. Sure I had the Kindle app on my iPad (and loved having it there), but it was all too easy to switch to something else, to check my email or the score in the game. On the Kindle, it’s read or nothing. Sounds stupid, but it’s absolutely true.

So as Ian said, the Kindle’s killer app is that is that it doesn’t multi task. It’s just a reading device.  In an age where attention is at an absolute premium, the importance of that can’t be overstated. I love mine, and on this vacation I’ve used it every day. The iPad on the other hand, has come out once.

Confusing Comscore QR Code Study

Last week comscore released a study that claimed that ’14 million Americans used a QR code in June 2011′.

14 million? In one month?

That’s over 5% of the adult population… I just don’t buy it, sorry. I would raise an eyebrow if you told me that 5% of my (very tech focused) friends and colleagues had used a QR code in June, let alone the general population.

I tweeted my doubt this morning, and @comscore responded that the study includes bar codes. I’m not really sure what that means. Either way, it’s confusing: the headline very clearly says QR codes, and that’s certainly how it’s being reported.

Regardless… though I see lots of potential for QR codes, the fact of the matter is we’re using them them wrong: using a QR code to simply link to your site is dull, and a classic example of deploying technology for its own sake. QR codes on underground subway billboards? OK then…

I don’t believe that it’s a dead technology by any means, but I think that for them to succeed I would like to see more smart digital application and less people claiming extraordinary success. Or if you are going to claim that success, I want to see some evidence.

UPDATE 3.30pm, 8/15: so this is weird. The original release from Comscore used the language ‘QR and bar codes’, but Comscore dropped the ‘bar codes’ bit. Strange.

Check out the original: http://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS371US371&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=14+Million+Americans+Scanned+QR+or+Bar+Codes+on+their+Mobile+Phones+in+June%C2%A02011

And here’s the release on Comscore’s site: http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/8/14_Million_Americans_Scanned_QR_or_Bar_Codes_on_their_Mobile_Phones_in_June_2011

Strange, no?

Realtor Speak

I’m looking for a new apartment here in NYC. It sucks, bigtime… I’d forgotten quite how crappy it is wading through all the BS listings trying to sort the wheat from the chaff. The language people use in their ads is really quite telling though….

• Spacious = Not spacious
• Cozy = Tiny
• Converted 2 bed = 1 bed
• Small 1 bed = converted studio
• Quiet neighborhood = not noisy all the time
• Remodeled = recently gutted
• Special = I can’t shift this shithole
• Great deal = i can’t shift this shithole
• Won’t last= i can’t shift this shithole
• Fits Queen size bed = bedroom exactly the size of a queen size bed

The lying that goes on by realtors on craigs list is pretty shocking.

Also, it appears that the entirety of East Harlem is on the market right now.

Sigh.